Miikef, I've been thinking about you and keeping you in my thoughts and prayers. You're asking some good questions, the same ones that my husband and I were asking. I spent about 100 hours in the past 4 weeks researching this for my husband. I’ll share what I found, and apologize for the length. It sounds like I'm trying to sell the non-invasive ablation therapy, but please know that I'm not, really. I'm selling "being informed" and we found that my husband’s doctors really did not give him both sides of the picture. This information that I'm quoting is on reputable web sites - reports of clinical trials, in the surgical and gastroenterology medical journals, and National Institutes of Health reports. The stats are out there, just buried in tons of other information.
The top 4 things I found out are: (1) get your biopsies reviewed for a second opinion to make sure that it is really high grade dysplasia - 75% of these are WRONG and you don't want to have the surgery unelss you have to; (2) make sure that you get what they call a "staging" with an EDG, biopsies, and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) to find any hidden cancer, or to find out how far your cancer has gone, before you decide on whether surgery is right for you; (3) if you choose ablation, pick a physician who can do more than one thing - laser ablation, Barrx ablation, endoscopic mucosal resection - so that your physician can put together a treatment plan that's right for you, the first time – otherwise you may need more treatments than the average to get it all taken care of; (4) if you choose esophagectomy, pick a surgeon and hospital combo with at least 12-30 esophagectomies a year, with less than 5% mortality rate (more about this later).
So, only you can make the right decision for you. Here are some things my husband thought were important to him in deciding which statistics to bet on: The mortality rate and complication rates for this procedure are staggering. Our surgeon said that it is a more complicated procedure than a cardiac bypass! I had no idea. You must get a surgeon who does this procedure at least 12-30 times a year at the same hospital (not just all surgeries, but ESOPHAGECTOMIES). It's not because the surgeons are bad - it's a very tough surgery to do, and it’s so rare that most doctors and hospitals don't get a lot of practice with it. The BEST surgeons have a mortality rate for this procedure of 3-5% - that means that 3-5 of every 100 people who has this procedure DIES from the surgery or complications afterwards. The worst surgeons/hospitals have a mortality rate of 23%, and the AVERAGE is 17%. Complications happen to 47% of patients. The top 3 complications are heart attacks or pneumonia after surgery, and leaks (the connection between the stump of the esophagus and the stomach springs a leak and spills gastric acid or bile into their abdomens, which causes pain and infections). These 50-50 odds of having a major complication are worse odds than developing esophageal cancer from high grade dysplasia, based on my math.
Now, for the ablation statistics: The PDT is an older and more tested but more agressive treatment than Barrx. It "burns" deeper so there are more complications from it - but the complications are still much less than the esophagectomy. With any laser or PDT or Barrx ablation, what happens is that there can be a "stricture" or narrowing of the esohpagus from scar tissue. They fix it by stretching or dilating the esophagus back to where it is able to handle swallowing food again. Uncomfortable and unpleasant but the patient is not in danger of dying. The Barrx procedure has proven to have fewer strictures than PDT. I actually couldn't find any reported strictures in the medical literature but I actually asked one of the doctors who does Barrx, and he said that there have been a few, less than 1%, and all of these folks had really long segments of Barrett's. Barrx and other ablation methods have had no deaths, virtually no complications, except for sore throat and swalloiwng and strictures, and – now that they have learned that they have to treat Barrett’s, not just the spot of dysplasia – I couldn’t find any reported cases of cancer developing after patients were finished with treatment. It was a problem in the earlier years of ablation therapy, before they figured out what worked - and it seems logical that it's theoretically possible that cancer could grow back, especially if they didn't cure 100% of the Barrett's, but I was looking for cancer statistics, too, and couldn't find any evidence that it's a problem.
You made a good point that you've been told that sometimes the high grade dysplasia is really cancer cells or hiding cancer. Since doctors don’t play the odds with your life, and rightly so!, they probably won’t tell you that the statistics prove that not all high grade dysplasia changes to cancer, and in fact it sometimes "regresses" to low grade dysplasia. Unfortunately, the bad news is that they still haven’t been able to predict which patient will develop cancer and which one will not. I wasn't able to find good stats on how many patients with high grade dysplasia get cancer, but I did find somewhere that 1% of all Barrett’s patients get cancer in 4-6 years, and some stats show 16-23% of patients with high grade dysplasia may progress to cancer, but it’s not clear whether that’s “in 3 months" or "within one year” or “after 5-10 years” or “in their lifetime.” Bottom line, medical science doesn’t really have good stats on how many people with high grade dysplasia process to cancer – they just know that it’s much more likely than if you didn’t have high grade dysplasia, and that once you get cancer, it’s bad, and it's their job to keep you from getting cancer if they can.
Barrx is keeping a registry of folks who've had the procedure so that they can gather the statistics to prove that it works for the long haul. I'm betting that it will - because 98% of the patients who have had the procedure are still disease-free, 2-3 years after the procedure. If you have cancer now, maybe you don’t have the luxury of waiting to see if these first patients are still Barrett’s free and cancer-free in 5, 10, 40 years from now; if you don’t have cancer, maybe you have more options, or more time to ponder.
You may want the peace of mind knowing that you've done the huge leap of surgery to "get it out of there" and you won't have to worry about cancer again, or worry about having to have the surgery down the road when it will be tougher on you. It's a big worry to have hanging over your head! I’d strongly encourage you to call the customer service folks at Barrx (it’s on their web site barrx.com), and the Thompson Cancer Survical Center in Knoxville. They were wonderful to answer questions about options, research, pros and cons. They will talk to you even if you don't plan on going there.
Good luck.